Carabao Cup Final Predictions: Will Newcastle upset Man United?

After six months of a very intense cup competition, the EFL Carabao Cup Final is here!

We will witness an epic clash between Manchester United and Newcastle United at the Wembley Stadium in London.

The Red Devils will be seeking their first trophy since 2016-2017 when they claimed the EFL Cup and the Europa League under former boss Jose Mourinho.

Also, Manchester United are back in a cup final for the first time since the 2021 Europa League, which they lost on penalties to Villareal.

The Magpies, who were beaten by Manchester United in the 1999 FA Cup final, will be attempting to win their first major trophy in nearly 54 years.

Their last major honor came in the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in 1969.

Analysis of current form

In Man United’s 18 games across competitions, since the resumption of play following the World Cup, they’ve averaged 2.27 goals per game.

Impressively, they’ve scored in all 18 fixtures and have been held to just one goal in two of those 18.

Only City and Arsenal have created more expected goals than Man United in the league.

In this tournament, Man U triumphed over Aston Villa, Burnley, Charlton Athletic, and twice against Nottingham Forest in two legs in the semi-finals.

Man U averages 2.8 goals per game, a productive 18.6% goal conversion in addition to 15.3 total shots, 5.6 corner kicks, and 64% ball possession.

They also have four clean sheets in this tourney.

Marcus Rashford has five goals and two assists in this competition.

Bruno Fernandes and Anthony Martial had two goals each while Casemiro and Alejandro Garnacho had two assists as well.

Newcastle United sits fifth in the Premier League, a point behind Tottenham Hotspurs and eight behind Sunday’s opponents.

They have just played 23 games in the Prem, but the Magpies boast themselves as the best defensive squad in England, conceding just 15 goals so far.

However, they have conceded in three consecutive games — against weaker attacks like West Ham and Bournemouth. The biggest blow was  — losing goal keeper Nick Pope who was given a straight red card and thus is suspended for today – in the 2-0 loss to Liverpool.

In six matches in the Carabao Cup, the Magpies have scored eight goals, six coming from assists with just two goals conceded.

They tally 16.3 total shots, 6.2 corners, and 58.8% ball possession. They also kept four clean sheets while registering 13.8 tackles and 15.7 clearances per game.

Joelinton and Sean Longstaff lead the team in this tourney with two goals each while Trippier and Miguel Almiron each have two assists.

Team News

Anthony Martial is doubtful while Donny Van De Beek, Christian Eriksen, Phil Jones, and Mason Greenwood are all out in this contest.

David De Gea is sure to secure his goal-keeping start along with midfielders, Fernandes, Casemiro, and Fred.

Rashford and Antony will accompany Wout Weghorst in front.

Diogo Dalot and Luke Shaw will serve as wingbacks while Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane will partner as center backs.

Newcastle will be without first-choice goalkeeper Nick Pope, which means Loris Karius will start as the goalie.

Anthony Gordon and Martin Dubravka are also out.

Howe’s back four will be Fabian Schar, Burn, Botman, and Trippier.

Play-maker Bruno Guimaraes is back in the midfield with Joelinton and Longstaff.

Almiron will join Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin as forwards.

Who will win

With Guimaraes back in the lineup after a three match suspension, we can expect Newcastle to create good opportunities moving forward.

In the 17 league games Bruno has played this season, Newcastle are averaging 1.94 goals. In the six he has missed, however, those figures drop to 0.66 goals.

However, Man United’s confidence is at its peak after defeating Barcelona on Thursday.

We expect a 2-0 victory for the Red Devils.